The Hard Way

The Hellenic Parliament has voted to approve, and will presumably implement, the demands of the Troika accepted on July 12 by the prime minister, who now states he doesn't support the agreement although he will implement it, and urges its approval.  The comes five days after the prime minister promised "the bigger the 'No' vote [on the referendum regarding the Troikas final, but expired and off the table offer], the better the deal."   It takes a lot of processing power, and storage capacity to keep up with the prime minister's different positions.

Inside the parliament the vote was 229 in favor to 64 against.  Thirty two of the "no" votes came from Syriza MPs.  Deputies from Syriza's coalition partner, the right-nationalist ANEL party, brought into government because of its principled agreement with Syriza's original position of "no further memorandums, no further bail-outs," voted unanimously for the agreement, which means the "principle" is now in direct contradiction to what it once was, but the partners are still allied.

The Tsipras government is now a minority government.  It depends for its existence on the support of PASOK and New Democracy and To Potami.  

Outside the parliament, the police are protecting the parliamentarians from the street protests with batons and tear gas, the purchases of which are not subject to Troika scrutiny.  


Well....a reader wanted to know why I thought "repudiating the debt was better than the status quo."  There are multiple reasons.  First and foremost, there is no status quo.  That's the critical point.  As bad as things are now, they will be much worse with the burdens placed on Greece through this agreement and the next memorandum.  Secondly, all those things forecast to occur if Greece repudiated the debt-- "the loss of tourism, further drops in foreign investment, social turmoil"-- will occur under the terms of the new memorandum, or without a new memorandum.  There is simply no possibility for "recovery," if such a word even has meaning any longer, of Greece's capitalism. 

The reader then asked "how would Greece defaulting be a better option for the prospects of a global revolution CONCRETELY?"  Concretely, repudiating the debt would pretty much bankrupt the ESM, jeopardize the ECB, and undermine the capital markets worldwide.  Now that in itself is not a seizure of power, but it's not a bad start.  Concretely, repudiating the debt attacks the claims on labor that need to be enforced to preserve capitalist property.  Concretely, repudiating the debt threatens every mechanism of exchange, and control, that the European bourgeoisie have fashioned in their grand alliance of the European Union.  Concretely, repudiating the debt would have a tremendous impact on the poor, the pensioners, the unemployed of Greece posing the question of the purpose of production along class lines.  Concretely repudiating the debt would have an equally dramatic impact on workers in Spain, Portugal, Slovenia, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Germany, Hungary.  Concretely, repudiating the debt undercuts the appeal of the fascists to the unemployed, the youth, the marginalized.

Would Europe retaliate?  Of course.  Would Greek assets be seized?  Of course.  Would living conditions in Greece deteriorate?  Undoubtedly.  This isn't 1960; Greece isn't Cuba; and there is no Soviet Union to subsidize the country. But...

But...I flip the assertion right back to those who argue against repudiating the debt:  there is no choice.  The alternative to repudiating the debt has proven itself catastrophic.  Repudiating the debt is an essential first step to reversing the catastrophe.  Don't take that step and nobody goes nowhere. 

Is it "hard"? Complicated?  Difficult?  Painful?  Of course.  And there is no alternative.

Back in the day, so many years ago that I can only dimly recall, after the collapse of Lehman Bros. and after Maiden Lanes 1,2,3, and all the special facilities, there was the same type of argument about TARP.  Then, Doug Henwood of the Left Business Observer, supported the TARP intervention to stabilize the credit-system, because (if I recall the argument correctly) the alternative was the collapse of the entire financial network, and a massive global depression.  The alternative it was thought was too horrible to contemplate.  Hence one had to support the government rescuing the bourgeoisie.

One did not.  One does not.  The collapse of the system is preferable to its maintenance, to its reproduction, to its recovery.  Because....the recovery of this system is much more horrible to contemplate than the after-effects of repudiating capitalism in part and in whole.  No I don't think things have to get worse before they get better.  I just think capitalism gets worse without getting better.

July 15, 3015

how would Greece defaulting be a better option for the prospects of a global revolution CONCRETELY?" - See more at: http://thewolfatthedoor.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-third-time-is-charm.html#comment-form

The Third Time Is the Charm

2010-- The government of Greece is bankrupt and cannot service it's sovereign debt.  The economy is near collapse.  First bailout memorandum, familiarly known as the Kick-The-Can-Down-the-Road Memorandum is agreed to.  Economy continues to contract.

2012-- The government of Greece is bankrupt and cannot service it's sovereign debt, most of which is owned by commercial and private financial institutions.  The economy is near collapse.  Second bailout memorandum, familiarly known as Eat-Shit-And-Die Memorandum is agreed to.  Commercial and private financial institutions balance sheets are rescued.  Economy is that much nearer to collapse.

2015-- The government of Greece is bankrupt and cannot service its sovereign debt, most of which is now owned by the official institutions of European and international capitalism, the ECB, the governments of Germany, France, Italy, Spain either directly or through the EFSF, whose last active program was the assistance program for Greece, which expired on June 30, 2015.  EFSF continues to exist but only to service the bonds it issued to bankroll its operations and its assistance programs, receive payments, and maintain continuity as the ESM takes over all responsibility.

The Greek economy has effectively collapsed.  Tsipras, the Prime Minister and leader of the Syriza party establishes a referendum for the Greek people to reject the "last offer" of the EU lenders, vowing that "the day after the referendum, negotiations will resume," and "the bigger the 'NO' vote [on those previous terms] the better the terms [of the new agreement that results from the new negotiations]."

Tsipras is, and has been, in so far over his head he has to look up to see the bottoms of his own shoes. Tsipras appeals for a third bailout.  Instead he receives and supports an "agreement", familiarly known as the Hung-By-the-Neck-for-Our-General-Amusement-Agreement, that may, if certain conditions are met, possibly lead to a third memorandum.  Oh boy, can't wait for that.

2015-- Tsipras, who's penchant for self-aggrandizement is matched and supported by an astounding inability to accurately evaluate social forces and "economic outcomes,"  states that while he does not "believe in" the new memorandum, he will implement it; that he signed the agreement in order to "avoid disaster for the country," which of course has suffered catastrophically from the previous memorandums; that he has no plans to resign, and that the the terms of this agreement "were milder" than those of previous agreements. 

Well, taking his "personal plans" first in dealing with this topsy-turvium  pathology of Tsipras', it doesn't matter what he plans, as has been so made so painfully clear to the most casual observer.  He doesn't plan to resign?  That's nice.  And irrelevant.

Reports are that ANEL, whose seats gave Syriza the majority necessary to form a government will vote against the agreement when it reaches the floor of the Hellenic Parliament.  Now the vote on this agreement will be one of the two most important votes the parliament has taken since January 26, 2015, the other being the vote of July 10, so I expect a good half-dozen or so of Syriza MPs, including Varoufakis will have personal matters of a higher priority demanding their time, and won't attend the session.  And another good half-dozen or so will actually find the nerve to vote "no."  

The KKE and the Fascists are sure "no" votes, so Tsipras's faction in Syriza will be dependent upon "yes" votes from PASOK, and New Democracy. This vote, no matter which way it goes is a vote of confidence in the Syriza government with all votes meaning "no confidence."  Tsipras is done. Gone.  Cooked. Maybe he gets a severely reduced pension, but we can hope not. 

Now as to this current agreement being "milder" than the last pre-referendum offer.  This agreement commits the Eurozone, the IMF, the ECB, the ESM to absolutely nothing.  This "agreement" is a set of pre-conditions that Greece must satisfy before negotiations towards a new MOU can even be initiated.  So we cannot compare the terms of this agreement to the terms of the last proposal made by the Troika prior to the referendum.

This is more than a technical detail, but more than technical details have never been exactly the strong point of Syriza's administration. 

What the agreement does require is that the Greek government modify the VAT to suit the demands of the Troika. 

What the agreement does require is long term, comprehensive reform of pensions to the satisfaction of the Troika.

What the agreement does require is that the Greek government comply with the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union, which stipulates that government deficits cannot exceed 3% of the GDP and that government debt does not exceed, or is sufficiently declining towards [emphasis added],  60% of the GDP.

What the agreement does require is full implementation of that same treaty such that automatic spending cuts are triggered in case of deviations from targeted primary budget surpluses.

What the agreement does require is changes to pension laws to offset the cost of the decision by Greece's Constitutional Court in 2012 declaring illegal the cutting of benefits to those who received both main and supplemental pensions, an estimated "clawback" by the EU from Greece of €1.022 billion.

The agreement does require implementation of OECD "Toolkit 1" to "enhance" competitiveness in various retailing and merchandising sectors with the application of OECD "Toolkit 2" anticipated for the manufacturing sector.

The agreement does require privatization of the country's electricity transmission network.

The agreement does require "reform" of labor markets to comply with "European best practices" when it comes to mass dismissals and layoffs.

The agreement does not require the transfer the transfer of €50 billion in national assets to a privatization fund, in that pre-valuation of assets prior to market sale does not satisfy the demand to fund this special facility to the €50 billion mark from the sale of assets.  The €50 billion realized from the sale of assets having as yet unknown total costs, pre-crisis notional value, or any other measure, will be used to "pre-refund" the debt occurring from any new memorandum and recapitalizing the banks (€25 billion), decreasing the debt/GDP ratio (€12.5 billion) and "investments" (€12.5 billion).

The agreement does require the review of legislation, with the exception of the emergency humanitarian package, enacted by the Hellenic parliament since February 20, in order to amend any laws that "backtracked" on previous commitments.

These are the "minimum requirements" that Greece alone must fulfill before any negotiations for debt relief, extended terms, additional funds provided by the ESM can take place. 


So there are no new terms that are milder than in previous agreements, because there are no terms of any agreement.  There are minimum requirements placed exclusively upon Greece before any negotiations regarding any possible agreement will even be entertained.

Now all the PhDs in the world-- the Leos, and Sams, and Hans, and Yannis-- can try to spin this as an "undefeat."

All the idiot movie-reviewers, semi-socialists, and friends can plead that Syriza, poor little Syriza was overwhelmed because life and systems and computer networks and writing code are just too complicated for anybody other than--well, themselves, when up until now everybody else was arguing that those same computer networks made it so much easier to "manage" socialism, to really match production to need (see Cockshott's works).

All those who yesterday proclaimed that the job of revolutionists, Marxists, etc. was to join Syriza "in order to keep it honest" can pretend that joining Syriza was anything ever than the dishonest effort to pre-empt the prospects for social revolution.

The institutions of European capitalism know better.  They know blood when they smell it.  They know victory when they taste it.  And the blood of the people of Greece is the taste of victory in the mouth of the Troika.

July 14, 2015

Dear Leo, Dear Sam

Shut up, you should excuse the harsh language.  Put a sock on it.  Close your gob.  Be quiet.  Just shut up.  You don't know what you're talking about and you keep talking about it so it's gone from simply being embarrassing to being  annoying to being pathetic to being downright offensive.  So shut  up.

Yesterday you're all about not jumping to conclusions, about waiting for the outcome of that momentous day.  Today, after we know the outcome, a plan so severe, so demanding, and so dismissive of Greece as anything other but a body to be bled dry that it  leaves Vlad the Impaler envious, you're back at it,  ass-backwards at it claiming that the Left Platform within Syriza and all those arguing for leaving the Eurozone were advocating a "non-starter." And of course, your starter is to completely ignore  yesterday's momentous day.

You proclaim that the Eurozone "clearly" sees  "that Syriza is a left party with socialism in its DNA, and one that whatever the constraints of staying within the EU, will continue to challenge European and global capitalism."  Well that settles it, then.  Wolfgang Schäuble, Mario Draghi, and Christine Lagarde will tell us what's socialist, and what's not.

My response to that nonsense:  "You wanna bet?"  You wanna bet that Syriza is not done, cooked, out the door, crumbling gone, dismissed with extreme prejudice?
 


Socialism in its DNA?  Exactly how does a political formation get socialism in its DNA?  Are we talking fertilization of zygotes here?  Acquired characteristics?  Lamarckian evolution? 

Not a word do you offer about Syriza's separation and isolation of the program of austerity from servicing the debt.  Not a word do you offer about Syriza's separation and isolation of debt service from maintaining its membership in the European Union.  Not a word do you utter about Syriza's separation and isolation of membership in the European Union from ongoing support for European capitalism. 

And with all that silence, you tell us that Syriza's DNA was socialist.

You probably don't recognize your "argument" for what it is, but it is nothing other than the argument the big C Communist Parties used to discipline supporters, followers, and opponents in the 1920s, 1930s, and beyond, with the CPs claiming  the legacy of,  the genetics of the Russian Revolution as a badge of authority. 

Bullshit then, bullshit now. 

Maybe there is and maybe there isn't such a thing as "socialist DNA," but if there is then the only sure thing is that within the body of Syriza, the socialist gene is regressive and cannot be expressed in or by the host organism. 

So just shut up.

July 13, 2015

The Action is the Man

On Friday, July 10, 2015, when the Hellenic Parliament voted on the "Tsipras submissions" to the EU, Yannis Varoufakis, former minister of finance, and current MP, wasn't there.  He wasn't there to vote "yes" "no" or "present."  Yanni-boy was a no-show, begging off due to pressing personal matters.

Priceless, no?  After the referendum, after all his blogging this and blogging that, after all the pictures on the motorcycle with his wife (only one helmet, and we know Yanni-boy wasn't sharing), after all the posturing, after all the rhetoric, the bag of wind couldn't bother showing up at the official conclave of bags of wind, to open his mouth, raise his hand, or press a button.

There's a man who takes his responsibility to the office to which he was elected-- as a representative of the people-- so deeply to heart that he skips a decisive vote in parliament to tend to his vacation home.

If the Syriza  had a hair on its ass, which it does not, it would designate all of Varoufakis' property for immediate assignment into the privatization fund. 

Meet the Paris Hilton of  "radical" political economy, Yannis Varoufakis.  He's his own chihuahua, a shivering, yapping dog.

July 13, 2015

Twits and Tweets

Leo Panitch, "Distinguished Research Professor of Political Science and Canada Research" or so it says on his business card ("available for weddings, bar mitzvahs, IPOs, and reality TV shows" it says on the flip side) has published this gem on Syriza where he demonstrates that nothing is more distinguished when conducting research than the disavowal of reality.

Distinguished Professor Panitch, mainstay of Left Forums, World Social Forums, and in-line skating contests,  thinks he's skewering Richard Seymour, and all others, who regard the Hellenic Parliament's approval of Syriza's latest pleadings to the Troika, as a "world-historic" defeat.

Distinguished Professor, never having previously expressed critical opposition to Syriza's "programs" (which hardly merit the label) or to its "strategy"(which was anything but) is miffed that Seymour has rushed to judgement before the day is out, the sun has set, thereby casting a pall over cocktail hour in Athens, Frankfurt, and Brussels. "What a brute, a vulgarian, that Seymour is.  Pass the Roditys, and the crackers with that pink fish stuff on it, what's it called?" bemoans our Distinguished Professor Panitch

Says our Distinguished Professor Panitch (among other things):

The real situation is this, as we await the outcome of what will in fact be a momentous day.  If there is in fact some significant debt restructuring and investment funds in a deal today and this is not effectively tied to further conditionality, this would offset many times over the four year $12 billion plan for fiscal surpluses in the plan just passed by the Greek parliament.  Of course, even if this the effective outcome of this weekend's final maneouvres, this will require some political sophistication to discern since it will be concealed somewhat so that other European leaders can disquiese this from their electorates, whose attitudes the Northern and Central European labour movements have done little or nothing to change.  Tsipras would need to explain this well to get people to understand the significance of the victory he--and they with their support in the referendum--would have pulled off.  

It will not be a "world historic" victory, for those who like such language, since it will still involve tying the revival of the Greek economy to the fate of what remains a very much capitalist Europe, but this would not mean that the Syriza government would exclude itself from the continuing struggle to challenge and change that.

Distinguished Research Professor Panitich is awaiting the outcome of today's (12 July 2015) negotiations between Greece and the European Union.  "The outcome of a momentous day," awaits he, the Distinguished Research Professor, detecting sings of life in the pithed frog government that is Syriza.   

Seymour of Lenin's Tomb was an enthusiastic supporter of Syriza, projecting his own wishes for "victory" over austerity unto that party.  Seymour embraced the illogic of attempting to separate austerity from debt, debt from membership in the EU, and the EU from capitalism.  So it's understandable that he's heartbroken and confuses his despair with "world-historic" events, just as he confused his own magical thinking with Syriza as a force for socialism.

Seymour at least recognizes that something has gone not exactly well in the course of events, even if he doesn't yet recognize that went badly from the getgo. Seymour is as VIB, and not yet a PhD not to mention Distinguished Research Professor, which probably explains why he's not looking on the bright side of life like professor Panitch.  Difference between those tenured and those not, I suppose.

So what about this momentous day?  Going well, is it?  Not according to the Guardian.  "Mental waterboarding was how they described the treatment of Tsipras.  Demands upon demands to cede financial authority to the EU.

A correspondent for the same Guardian tweeted that the EU placed the following demands on the table:

1. Streamlining VAT

2. Broadening the tax base

3. Sustainability of the pension system

4. Adopt a code of civil procedure

5. Safeguarding of legal independence for Greece ELSTAT-- the statistical office

6. Full implementation of automatic spending cuts

7. Meet bank recovery and resolution directive

8. Privatize electricity transmission grid

9. Take decisive action on non-performing loans

10. Ensure independence of privatization body TAIPED

11. De-Politicize the Greek administration

12. Return of the Troika to Athens

These proposals themselves represent a compromise on the part of the Troika, tweeted Wolfgang  Schäuble, #wolfslair, Germany's Minister of Finance, in that they did not include: 

13. demand for the beheading of Yannis Varoufakis

14. display of the severed head in the Hellenic Parliament for 30 days

15. leasing of the Parthenon in perpetuity to EuroDisney

16.that the Greek government officially change the names of Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle to Johann, Adolph, and Friedrich

17. did not require the chaining of Tsipras to Kazbek Mountain in the Caucasus where his liver was to be pecked out by Imperial eagles (but only because the Caucasus is controlled by Russia, and Putin wouldn't agree to terms)

There is indeed an important defeat going on here-- a defeat based on Syriza's success in muffling class struggle, in demoralizing workers, in frittering away time as the economy slips back into recession. Only a very distinguished research professor could be so comfortable in his self-importance as to so boldly display his complete ignorance, his total disregard for reality, his disdain for the class struggle, the class war of the bourgeoisie, of bourgeois property against the needs of and for the emancipation of labor.

Dear Leo, you haven't been paying attention to current events, but you just got the shit kicked out of you back there in Athens, Brussels, and Frankfurt, even if you're too stupid to notice the size 14 boot sticking out of your ass. 

Advice for making a revolution:  exclude those with graduate degrees in political science, political economy, economy, philosophy, political philosophy, political economic philosophy, from providing advice, or participating in the struggle.  Exclude all of them.  Their loss, and loss of them, is our gain.

July 12, 2015

 

All In

Worth repeating:

No, that was not the stake.  At stake was another bailout of Greece. On top of debt forgiveness.  On top of a moratorium.

Greece is structurally incapable of retiring its debt in the next ten, twenty, or thirty years.   Greece is structurally incapable of generating sufficient revenues, no matter what level of austerity is applied, to meet more than a fraction of the costs of the "plan of four pillars."

Syriza's game, such as it was, was to capitalize its weakness. Literally.  Somewhere along the line, they believed not only their own μαλακίες, but the bollocks of others that if you owe enough, it's not your problem, it's the lenders. 

So let's pick up the thread of development again.  Syriza thinks it holds the trump cards in its empty hand.  Syriza believes its empty hand is the trump card.  Syriza can adjust, backdown, compromise, resubmit proposal after proposal because it has its eyes on the prize-- another bailout necessary to keep it functioning in the Eurozone.

The Troika recognizes the game for what it is.  It's determining strategy is to avoid another bailout.  It must avoid another bailout or the ESFS [European Financial Stability Facility] would be...depleted.  ESFS exposure to Greece is estimated at €141 billion,  about 30 percent of the mechanism's lending capacity, and 20 percent of the total guarantees made by the eurozone member states.  Germany, France provide half the guarantee total, with Italy and Spain providing another 30 percent.  Any new bailout of Greece would have to retire the old debt, meaning either the debt gets redeemed by the mechanism, or its guarantors.

The Troika has its eyes on the prize also, and that prize is Italy where debt loads are too large to be guaranteed by the ESFS; where the economy, having experienced triple-dip recessions cannot afford to meet further commitments to the stability facility.  The Troika knows what's at stake; what's essential to the functioning of the block of the European bourgeoisie.  And it ain't Greece.  Never has been.

Syriza has requested another bailout.  It is not going to happen.  Schäuble plays this game better than Varoufakis, Tsipras, and all the radical political economists put together, because he recognizes it isn't a game.  At stake is Italy.  Listen up, Renzi: the continued devastation of Greece is the object lesson of a European Union of capital, for a European Union of capital, by a European Union of capital. 

Now that's the "front page" story.  The back story is coming to grips with the grinding defeat facilitated by Syriza.  So......all in.
 

1. I think I was one of the first to draw an analogy, or a parallel between Syriza and Allende's UP government in Chile. That being said, Tsipras wouldn't make a pimple on Allende's ass, and Syriza (with its bogus Thessaloniki program of a "new New Deal" and one more Marshall plan), in comparison to the Socialist Party of Chile of that time wouldn't even make it into the "left" category. Syriza was, is, and remains a consciously pro-capitalist formation, of by and for continued domination of capital. Allende, and the Socialist Party of Chile were not.

2. The UP government was elected by a workers' upsurge whereas Syriza gained its credibility by demonstrating how effective it could be in pre-empting demonstrations, strikes; channeling struggle into "democratic expressions" of support for the European Union, and Greece's "partnership" with EU capitalism.

3. The "left" outside of Syriza has to come to grips with its uncritical support for an explicitly pro-capitalist formation. Moreover, the "left" outside of Syriza has to come to grips with the failure of the left platform within Syriza-- that it registered only 2 "no" votes against the Tsipras proposals. All other "no" votes came from...........the fascists and the KKE.

4. The "left" is organically incapable of confronting either issue.


5. Advocating demonstrations against the government (which government will be out of office shortly) has its role, purpose, and function, and part of those is facilitating, and covering, efforts to building an underground apparatus that can protect militants, workers, immigrants from the repression, and the assaults from official and unofficial sources that are sure to follow.

July 11, 2012 

No, that was not the stake.  At stake was another bailout of Greece. On top of debt forgiveness.  On top of a moratorium.

Greece is structurally incapable of retiring its debt in the next ten, twenty, or thirty years.   Greece is structurally incapable of generating sufficient revenues, no matter what level of austerity is applied, to meet more than a fraction of the costs of the "plan of four pillars."

Syriza's game, such as it was, was to capitalize its weakness. Literally.  Somewhere along the line, they believed not only their own μαλακίες, but the bollocks of others that if you owe enough, it's not your problem, it's the lenders. 

So let's pick up the thread of development again.  Syriza thinks it holds the trump cards in its empty hand.  Syriza believes its empty hand is the trump card.  Syriza can adjust, backdown, compromise, resubmit proposal after proposal because it has its eyes on the prize-- another bailout necessary to keep it functioning in the Eurozone.

The Troika recognizes the game for what it is.  It's determining strategy is to avoid another bailout.  It must avoid another bailout or the ESFS [European Financial Stability Facility] would be...depleted.  ESFS exposure to Greece is estimated at €141 billion,  about 30 percent of the mechanism's lending capacity, and 20 percent of the total guarantees made by the eurozone member states.  Germany, France provide half the guarantee total, with Italy and Spain providing another 30 percent.  Any new bailout of Greece would have to retire the old debt, meaning either the debt gets redeemed by the mechanism, or its guarantors.

The Troika has its eyes on the prize also, and that prize is Italy where debt loads are too large to be guaranteed by the ESFS; where the economy, having experienced triple-dip recessions cannot afford to meet further commitments to the stability facility.  The Troika knows what's at stake; what's essential to the functioning of the block of the European bourgeoisie.  And it ain't Greece.  Never has been. - See more at: http://thewolfatthedoor.blogspot.com/#sthash.ZPKgP7hb.dpuf

No, that was not the stake.  At stake was another bailout of Greece. On top of debt forgiveness.  On top of a moratorium.

Greece is structurally incapable of retiring its debt in the next ten, twenty, or thirty years.   Greece is structurally incapable of generating sufficient revenues, no matter what level of austerity is applied, to meet more than a fraction of the costs of the "plan of four pillars."

Syriza's game, such as it was, was to capitalize its weakness. Literally.  Somewhere along the line, they believed not only their own μαλακίες, but the bollocks of others that if you owe enough, it's not your problem, it's the lenders. 

So let's pick up the thread of development again.  Syriza thinks it holds the trump cards in its empty hand.  Syriza believes its empty hand is the trump card.  Syriza can adjust, backdown, compromise, resubmit proposal after proposal because it has its eyes on the prize-- another bailout necessary to keep it functioning in the Eurozone.

The Troika recognizes the game for what it is.  It's determining strategy is to avoid another bailout.  It must avoid another bailout or the ESFS [European Financial Stability Facility] would be...depleted.  ESFS exposure to Greece is estimated at €141 billion,  about 30 percent of the mechanism's lending capacity, and 20 percent of the total guarantees made by the eurozone member states.  Germany, France provide half the guarantee total, with Italy and Spain providing another 30 percent.  Any new bailout of Greece would have to retire the old debt, meaning either the debt gets redeemed by the mechanism, or its guarantors.

The Troika has its eyes on the prize also, and that prize is Italy where debt loads are too large to be guaranteed by the ESFS; where the economy, having experienced triple-dip recessions cannot afford to meet further commitments to the stability facility.  The Troika knows what's at stake; what's essential to the functioning of the block of the European bourgeoisie.  And it ain't Greece.  Never has been. - See more at: http://thewolfatthedoor.blogspot.com/#sthash.ZPKgP7hb.dpuf

Get Ready

The Guardian is reporting that the Hellenic Parliament has adopted Alexis "Ain't Too Proud to Beg" Tsipras' latest proposals for "economic adjustment." The report identifies 250 votes "for," 32 votes "against," and 8 abstentions.  Ten members apparently didn't show up. 

It appears from the tally that Syriza party MPs accounted for all of the abstentions, seven of the no-shows, and only two of the "no" votes.  So much for the "left platform," of which so much was made, in which was placed so much hope, just as before so much was made of and so much hope was placed in Syriza itself.  

So Tsirpas has rendered his (near) final services to the maintenance of Greek and European capitalism-- a)proving the insignificance, irrelevance of "left platform" formations; how they embody all the sterling qualities--equivocation, bluster, duplicity, cowardice-- of the broader electoral alliance in which they participate;  b) removing any further need for his government and his party to exist; and c)setting the stage for eclipse, dispersal, and probable suppression of parliament itself as protests, temporarily quelled by Syriza's election, move back into the streets, as the economy resumes its death spiral, as the police and the military find themselves reinvigorated by capital's  demand for "Order!". 

I'm guessing that the "no" votes were cast by the KKE (Greek Communist Party) and XA (Golden Dawn), at least that's  what I come up with from the numbers.  The KKE has 12 seats, and Golden Dawn has 17, and maybe there's one, but probably only one ANEL MP who voted no. 

So now what happens?  First, the struggle is now as it always has been-- extra-parliamentary.  Golden Dawn has been expanding and consolidating its extra-parliamentary gangs, and extra-parliamentary activity-- everything from collecting "protection" money to providing medical treatment for Greeks only-- throughout the memorandum period. 

"Responsible action" by Marxists requires, first and foremost, construction of an underground network, embedded in working class areas that can protect activists, organizers, immigrants from official and unofficial repression.

That's a good enough place for a start.

July 10, 2015