From a message to a friend:
To be honest, I'm not all that happy with "Overproduction, Overcapitalization 2." The point I'm trying to make, or trying to account for in the piece is the actual price increases that accompany increased capital formation,
the growth of fixed assets, and the increased capital expenditures that precede and accompany periods of downturns.
To me, this is not
just a question of speculation-- but the purpose speculation serves in
distributing the profits. Certainly there's speculation: the Financial
Times estimated that 70% of all price moves in the commodity markets are the
results of computerized trading programs responding to other computerized
trading programs-- but such programs are triggered by, and conform with,
certain changes in the size of the capitals dedicated to mining, petroleum,
So that's what I want to get at. I think the price increases
are "deliberate" but inherent, planned but determined, by the changes in
capital formation-- not by speculators, "monopolists" etc.
this might help explain the transition after the end of the "long deflation"
in/around 1898 and the movement to syndicates, trusts, where/when prices
move much differently than they do in the 1873-1898 period.
Wish I weren't
so lazy, and so bored,by "economics." I might actually be able to tolerate
doing the research such a thesis requires.
If I knew of anyone interested, I'd hire him/her to sort it out.
(author's name withheld by request by the author, S.Artesian)